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Investment News and Research / Blanchard Economic Research Unit

Major trends in supply and demand are exerting their influence on the market

September 5, 2006

Looks like we're starting out September with a bang. Major trends in supply and demand are exerting their influence on the market...production figures from the number one and number four producing countries are showing mining production is continuing to fall. This goes to underscore how different this bull market is from those in the past. Producers can't ramp up production now to take advantage of higher prices. Years of underinvestment in the gold sector and the fact that the easy mines have been found and mined out have shifted this gold market into a new paradigm. Less supply is hitting the market during our peak demand season and the most bullish news on Central Bank sales at the end of September has yet to hit the market. This September will continue to trend of major price increases we've seen the last six years.

Australian gold production drops to 10-year low

12:33 PM September 4, ABC

Australian gold production continues to fall and is at its lowest level in more than a decade, a mining consultancy company has reported.

Surbiton Associates says Australia produced 251 tonnes of gold in the 2005-2006 financial year - 5 per cent less than during the previous 12 months.

S.African Q2 gold output up 1 pct q/q, falls y/y

Mon Sep 4, 2006 4:14 PM GMT

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Gold production in the world's largest gold producer South Africa rose 1 percent to 2.21 million ounces (68,685.9 kg) in the second quarter compared with the first three months of 2006, the Chamber of Mines said on Monday.

But output dipped 6.4 percent when compared with the same quarter in 2005, the industry group added in a statement.

Gold Rises in Asia on Seasonal Demand From India; Silver Gains

By Feiwen Rong

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose for a second day in Asia on expectation of rising demand from countries such as India. Silver also gained.

Gold has risen every September since 2000 as jewelers increase purchases of the metal before end of year holidays, the Indian wedding season and as investors in Europe and U.S. return to work after mid-year breaks.

"From September to December, you can always expect some demand from the physical side," Gerald Teo, assistant vice president at Ong First Tradition Pte, said in a phone interview from Singapore.

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